Saturday, January 14, 2012
“THE SKINNY” ON FORECLOSURES IMPACTING THE REAL ESTATE MARKET & SHADOW INVENTORY
150,000 properties were repossessed by lenders in the tri-county southeast Florida area since the 2007 crash. CondoVultures.com reports that the repossessions equal about half the nearly 300,000 foreclosure actions filed during the same 5-year period. They estimate than less than half of those properties repossessed by lenders have been resold to buyers. They further estimate that this rate will continue steadily for the foreseeable future.
There was a 36% drop in year-over-year bank repossessions but that is rooted in part to issues related to the “foreclosure freeze” in 4Q 2010. Some investors are concerned that purchasing bank-owned properties could lead to future title issues.
With nearly 299,000 notices of default filed against borrowers, the Florida court system was over whelmed with foreclosure actions. Today lenders plan for a 700-day repossession process with a cost of about $100,000 per property. Generally bank owned properties generate lower average prices than short sales.
CoreLogic reports that at the end of October 2011 lenders had a “shadow inventory” of 1.6MM distressed properties and repossessed homes they had not yet put up for sale, down 16% from a year ago. Florida is one of 6 sates accounting for half of these. CoreLogic says in a healthy market shadow inventory should represent less than one month supply of homes; currently the figure is five months.
National Association of Realtors says 29% of November 2011 sales were short sales and bank owned sales. Lender Processing Services estimates that there were almost 4MM homes in the foreclosure process or 90-days delinquent at the end of October.
No matter whose estimate we look at, it’s not a pretty picture!